Haftar in Sudan .. Have we reached the peak?

By Othman Mirghani- What caused my surprise was the surprise of the surprising people of Libyan forces entering Sudan in the “Al-Owainat” triangle, which links three countries to Sudan: Egypt, Libya, and Chad.

I thought that the strategic planners on the Sudanese side had a clear map for the emergence of the April 15, 2023 war, since the start of its first bullet. It is known that every war has a cry of birth, then Omar graduated in which the conflict expands horizontally and veiled, until it reaches the peak, then the graph begins with bending and retreating on his heels in a descending path, until the zero point from which he started.

The importance of this strategic curve is that it gives specialized experts the opportunity to control the rise and peak point and then landing. The smart state can make the peak point in the lowest possible height of the curve, to shorten the life of the war, ruin, destruction, blood and body parts, and to reduce the failure of development.

During the past few days, the “Al -Owainat” triangle witnessed violent clashes with Field Marshal Haftar’s followers, which ended with a statement by the Sudanese Armed Forces, announcing their re -positions for defensive considerations. This phrase means, mostly, that the Rapid Support Forces, with the support of Haftar’s forces, are controlling the triangle, all, or part, or part of it, as the field situation is still mysterious.

Is this the most of the war curve reached? Or is the graph still the upski?
The answer is crucial because it reveals the vision adopted by the strategic planners. The best thing to expect will be ready since the beginning of the war. As for the weakest faith, it is not to ask the question now, and the worst cases are that the answer remains suspended in an argument between decision makers.

The available information confirms the Sudanese army’s control and the common force on the situation, and that things are going according to the will of the Sudanese people. But that does not mean that the page was touched in this sensitive strategic area. On the contrary, a new door for latent scenarios was opened behind the horizon.

This region overlooks the depth of the northern state, and is not imagined that it is subject to a direct threat, because this may lead to an open regional war, affecting the national security of neighboring countries. Playing in this area is like to throw a tuning stick in a barrel barrel, its victims will not only be in sight, but its impact will extend far beyond that, with the difficulty of rapid recovery from its consequences.

The best way to deal with the situation is to rely on the Egyptian lever to communicate with Field Marshal Haftar. The area of ​​common interests is much broader than any temptations that may be drawn to impose a new front in the Sudan war.
Until diplomatic channels prove the opposite, extinguishing the fire in this sensitive area is a gain for common countries within the borders of “Al -Owainat”. But if the Libyan side insists on continuing the aggression, the Sudan war may be extinguished soon, while the triangle fire remains burning due to the hurricanes of an open desert area that is difficult to control the intruders.

The triangle will become a dominant area, in which criminal organizations find a safe haven through the “Sindh Vs.” deals, as it protects the back of those who protect it. This fissile equation will find enough fuel to expand west to the coast and east to the Horn of Africa.

Whoever thinks that what is happening in “Alwainat” is easy because it is just a small triangle, let him know that the nuclear bomb does not exceed football.